ANTICIPATED MARKET DEVELOPMENT / %
German passenger transport (based on pkm)
As of July 2022.
Outlook for 2022 rounded to half percentage points.
In 2022, the German passenger transport market is expected to recover noticeably from the Covid-19-related performance slump of the two previous years. Nevertheless, the volume sold in all sectors, with the exception of the motorized private transport sector, will remain below pre-Covid-19 levels overall. The development of demand strongly depends on the Covid-19 infection situation, the regulatory measures and the associated mobility behavior. Commuting and business travel are being replaced to a significant extent by working from home and digital communication. Individual forms of transport where there is a low risk of Covid-19 infection – such as traveling by car, bicycle or on foot – should continue to benefit from an ongoing Covid-19 pandemic at the expense of public transport.
- In these circumstances, private motorized transport in particular is likely to reach pre-Covid-19 levels. Rising fuel prices, partly as a result of the CO₂ pricing that entered into force in 2021, will initially remain of minor importance. Further significant increases in 2022 as a result of the war in Ukraine will dampen the increase and favor shifts to rail transport.
- Domestic German air transport is facing a lengthy recovery in view of subdued demand due to Covid-19, climate change policies and a dramatic drop in supply. In 2022, it will only conceivably recover some of the losses sustained as a result of Covid-19.
- Public road passenger transport is expected to increase noticeably again, benefitting in particular from the 9-Euro-Ticket, but local transport is nevertheless suffering from the effects of substitution by cars and bicycles. Long-distance bus services are expected to grow more slowly in comparison due to reduced supply and strong competition from rail passenger transport.
- A noticeable recovery in local and long-distance transport is expected for rail passenger transport. Long-distance transport is likely to benefit from gains from air and long-distance bus transport, as well as an improved service offering. Local public transport will be strengthened by the 9-Euro-Ticket, particularly in the summer months. The main assumptions underlying this development are a decline in Covid-19 infection numbers, the loosening or lifting of Covid-19-related contact restrictions, and a revival of confidence in public transport, as well as the desire for a shift in the mode of transport.
In European passenger transport, too, development will be specific to the mode of transport and will vary from region to region. Financial weaknesses and strategic realignments of individual providers make it probable that the mobility market will undergo consolidation. However, the progressive climate policy of the EU and its member states remains the long-term engine powering the development of environmentally friendly public mobility – and rail passenger transport in particular therefore.