Outlook
Development of DB Group
- Performance development in rail transport influenced by performance quality and strikes somewhat weaker than previously expected.
- Expectations for revenue development as a result of freight rate development at DB Schenker and performance development in long-distance and freight transport adjusted.
- Capital expenditure activity continues to grow.
Strong rail top targets
Anticipated development | 2023 | 2024 (Mar forecast) | 2024 (Jul forecast) |
Volume sold long-distance transport (billion pkm) | 45.5 | ~47 | ~45 |
Passengers regional transport (rail) (billion) | 1.7 | ~ 1.9 | ~1.8 |
Volume sold rail freight transport(Germany) (billion tkm) | 51.9 | – | ~ 49 |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany)(billion train-path km) | 1.12 | ~ 1.15 | ~ 1.12 |
Condition grade high-performance network (grade) | 3.1 | 2.8 | ‒ |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (grade) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) (grade) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo (grade) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
Punctuality (operational), DB Long-Distance (%) | 64.0 | ~ 70 | 63‒67 |
Punctuality (whole journey), DB Long-Distance (%) | 68.9 | ~ 74 | 68‒72 |
Punctuality, DB Regional (rail) (%) | 91.0 | ~ 93 | 90‒92 |
Punctuality, DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 70.5 | ~ 69 | 67‒70 |
Absolute greenhouse gas emissions Scope 1 and 2 (Integrated Rail System) 1) (million t) | 3.3 | ~ 3.2 | ~ 3.2 |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current (Germany)2) (%) | 68 | ~ 69 | ~ 69 |
Employee satisfaction (SI) | ‒ | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Women in leadership (%) | 29.4 | ~ 30 | >30 |
Debt coverage (%) | 5.2 | >11 | ~ 11 |
ROCE (%) | ‒2.0 | ~ 2 | ~ 2 |
1) Not including non-material smaller Group companies and subsidiaries in the Integrated Rail System.
2) The data for 2023 constitute a forecast as of February 2024. Since 2023, the proportion of renewable energy has been presented separately without Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) subsidies.
Based on the development in 2024 so far and updated estimates, we have adjusted our expectations for development in the 2024 financial year:
- Performance development: As a result of the challenging operational situation, supply limitations due to the high construction volume and the strike effects from the first quarter of 2024, we expect slightly weaker performance development in rail transport.
- Customer satisfaction: In terms of customer satisfaction, we expect a slight decrease compared to the forecast from March 2024 caused by weak punctuality and restrictions due to extensive construction work.
- Punctuality: In terms of punctuality, we expect significantly lower full year values due to the weak first half of 2024 despite a stronger second half of 2024. This is subject to, among other things, that the general modernization of the Riedbahn will take place as planned. Beyond that, no additional risks may impact operating quality. The indicated corridors reflect the currently very high uncertainty regarding the development over the further course of the year.
- Profitability: Debt coverage and ROCE are expected to develop slightly weaker than previously expected as a result of reduced profit expectations.