Market environment
Passenger and freight transport
Demand for mobility developed unevenly in the first half of 2024. Passenger transport recorded a moderately positive development, with growth varying in the individual market segments. Weak economic development and persistently high price levels with an effect on private consumption had a dampening effect in all segments. The Germany-Ticket, which was introduced in May 2023, remains a positive driver of demand for local public transport.
Freight transport was unable to recover in the first quarter of 2024 due to weak economic development. Following on from 2023, industrial production and foreign trade are continuing to dampen demand for transport in Germany in 2024. Consequently, the freight transport market in Germany continued to decline slightly.
Global economy
The global economy was robust in the first half of 2024. As expected, growth in the first months of 2024 was stable in many regions, including the USA and Asia. In Europe, on the other hand, only modest growth was achieved, with the weak development in the industrial sector in particular having a dampening effect. In Germany, this led to stagnation in economic output in the first half of 2024.
Energy markets
The central hedging policy of DB Group aims to reduce energy price fluctuations. Our activities are therefore not exposed to the full impact of changes in market prices, at least not in the short term.
Brent oil
Brent crude / USD/bbl | H1 2024 | 2023 | Change | |
absolute | % | |||
Average price | 83.4 | 82.2 | +1.2 | +1.5 |
Highest price | 92.2 | 97.7 | –5.5 | –5.6 |
Lowest price | 74.8 | 70.1 | +4.7 | +6.7 |
Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 86.4 | 77.0 | +9.4 | +12.2 |
Source: Refinitiv
Oil prices rose slightly in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year. This is due to the consequences of the Ukraine war, the continuing shortage of supply from OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Fuel prices in Germany in the first half of 2024 were at the same level as the previous year. No major changes are expected in the further course of the year.
Electricity and emissions certificates
H1 2024 | 2023 | Change | ||
absolute | % | |||
Base load power (following year)(€/MWh) | ||||
Average price | 85.7 | 137.2 | –51.5 | –37.5 |
Highest price | 102.8 | 219.3 | –116.5 | –53.1 |
Lowest price | 67.6 | 86.2 | –18.6 | –21.6 |
Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 91.3 | 95.5 | –4.2 | –4.4 |
Emissions certificates (€/t CO₂) | ||||
Average price | 65.7 | 85.3 | –19.6 | –23.0 |
Highest price | 81.3 | 101.3 | –20.0 | –19.7 |
Lowest price | 51.1 | 66.0 | –14.9 | –22.6 |
Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 67.5 | 80.4 | –12.9 | –16.0 |
Source: Refinitiv
Prices on the futures market for electricity for delivery in the following year fell sharply in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, electricity prices have been driven primarily by the shortage of natural gas. As gas supplies have eased, wholesale electricity prices have also fallen recently. However, consumer prices for electricity in Germany remain at a high level in a long-term comparison. The price brakes for electricity and gas expired at the end of 2023. As of 2024, noticeably higher grid charges are having a price-driving effect.
The price of emission certificates in the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) declined in the first half of 2024. One reason for this is the low demand for certificates due to weak industrial production in the EU. Demand is also being reduced by a higher availability of renewable energies.