Developments in the relevant markets

The developments described below are based in part on provisional data and different time horizons, as complete data on market developments in the first half of 2024 was not available at the time this report was prepared.

In the first half of 2024, the German passenger transport market recorded a slight increase in volume sold. However, the growth in demand varied greatly across the individual market segments.

• Motorized individual transport continued to recover in the first half of 2024 compared to pre-Covid-19 levels. However, a persistently high fuel price level and a change in mobility behavior following the Covid-19 pandemic had a dampening effect.
• Domestic air transport recorded strike-related losses in the first quarter of 2024 and remained well below the pre-Covid-19 level.

Rail passenger transport

Rail passenger transport developed positively and recorded significant growth in volume sold (+10%) in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year. However, service restrictions due to high levels of construction activity and the effects of the GDL strikes, among other things, had a dampening effect. DB Group’s volume sold also increased during this period. The positive development in volume sold for rail passenger transport continued in the second quarter of 2024.

• Regional rail passenger transport grew very significantly in the first quarter of 2024 (+25%), in particular due to baseline effects from the introduction of the Germany-Ticket in May 2023. DB Regional Rail recorded an increase in performance at a slightly lower level (+19%). Growth weakened in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, as the Germany-Ticket (since May 2023) already had some positive effects in the same period of the previous year.
• Long-distance rail passenger transport, on the other hand, declined (–6%) in the first quarter of 2024 due to the high level of construction activity and strikes.
• FlixTrain expanded its seating capacity in the first half of 2024 – taking as its starting point the significantly lower capacity compared to DB Long-Distance – and strengthened sales cooperation with local transport companies to connect further cities.

Public road passenger transport

The overall public road passenger transport market recorded a moderate increase in volume sold (+6%) in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year, partly due to positive effects from the Germany-Ticket.

• In the first quarter of 2024, the growth in regional bus transport was about 5%. DB Regional Road recorded an increase in performance of about 11% in the first quarter of 2024.
• Long-distance bus transport increased significantly in the first half of 2024, partly due to an increase in services. In the first quarter of 2024, volume sold was signi­ficantly higher (+16%) than in the same quarter of the previous year.

Following the significant slump in 2023, freight transport in Germany did not return to growth in the first quarter of 2024. The lack of economic recovery continues to dampen demand for transport. At the same time, service providers are struggling with rising operating costs across different modes of transport and increased competitive pressure due to surplus capacity.

With weak development also expected in the second quarter of 2024, demand will at best recover from the second half of 2024 onwards. In terms of 2024 as a whole, however, freight transport in Germany is likely to be below the previous year.

Rail freight transport

According to previous publications by the Federal Office of Statistics, the development of rail freight transport volume sold up to March 2024 was significantly lower than in the same period in the previous year, with a decline of 5.6%. This market situation primarily reflects the current weak economic conditions.

Road freight traffic

Road freight transport also got off to a weak start in 2024. Although there has been a slight recovery since April 2024, transport volumes are still below the previous year’s level. This is due to the continuing weak economic impetus and the persistently weak order book in the construction industry, which is particularly relevant for the road sector.

The restrained development is also reflected in the toll statistics of the Federal Office for Goods Freight Transport. On the toll road network, mileage stagnated at a low level until May 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year. The development of trucks registered in Germany was worse than that of foreign trucks.

Inland waterway transport

After a poor year in 2023, inland waterway transport continued its negative development in the first months of 2024; volume sold in the first two months of 2024 was 3.5% below the previous year’s level.

This is due to the persistently weak volumes of coal transports and the lack of recovery in chemical and steel transports.

European rail freight transport market

According to the latest available data, volume sold in European rail freight transport (EU 27, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom) fell by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year. The market continues to be burdened by weak economic development and high costs. Despite a slight recovery in container volume, the weak development of the sectors predisposed to rail transport is causing declines in almost all European countries.