Development in the relevant markets

Europe

The European land transport market is confronted with stagnating demand, although prices are experiencing dynamic growth in certain areas. This volatility is primarily due to inflation and a persistent shortage of capacity. Many smaller transport companies that are unable to pass on the cost pressure to shippers are exiting the market, while the ongoing driver shortage is further exacerbating the situation. The gradual implementation of the EU Mobility Pact, which regulates driving and rest times as well as cabotage, is creating further uncertainty in transport planning and increasing costs.

Americas

Demand for land transport in North America remains well below the level of 2022, resulting in historically low prices. Operating costs remain under inflationary pressure in almost all areas. The available capacity and thus the number of trucks on the roads has fallen increasingly, although not to the extent that would be necessary to achieve market equilibrium. There are clear signs that the market has bottomed out and is now beginning to turn in favor of freight forwarders, provided there are no significant new external influences. There is a downward trend in South America, although the market there is less susceptible to fluctuations than in North America.

Asia/Pacific

The market for international truck transport in Asia has been experiencing a revival since the second quarter of 2024 due to the disruption in the intra-Asia ocean and air freight market. The recovery effects in China are falling short of market expectations. However, after a sharp decline in 2023, volumes in land transport are stabilizing. In Eurasia, the market is experiencing a revival due to the conflicts in the Middle East and the associated consequences for ocean freight in the first quarter of 2024. However, volumes remain at a low level overall, due to the war in Ukraine.

In the first half of 2024, the air freight market can be divided into two different segments: the market including the new e-commerce business from China and the traditional air freight market. While the traditional market only saw slight growth in the first quarter of 2024, the market grew in the low double-digit range when the e-commerce segment is taken into account. Along with the extreme regional differences in demand resulting from the e-commerce boom and the associated imbalances in available capacities, we are see­­ing freight rates rising globally, albeit with strong regional differences and directions.

The first half of 2024 was characterized by disruptions in the ocean freight market caused by the attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. As a result of the detour around the Cape of Good Hope, capacity is effectively being withdrawn from the market, leading to capacity bottlenecks and ensuring that the high number of new ships can be easily accommodated. The detour also leads to additional costs, delays and congestion at ports, causing freight rates to rise considerably. In addition, demand for container transport is rising considerably again worldwide, particularly in Europe and North America. As a result, freight rates have risen rapidly in recent months.

The most important demand drivers are the vertical markets of electronics, in particular semiconductors and cloud, omni/retail and healthcare. A positive development is also being seen in the Automotive VM segment, which has benefited from rising volumes in electromobility and the stabilization of combustion engine production following the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of vertical markets, the consumer electronics sector and, geographically speaking, Greater China, where there has been an economic slowdown, especially among Western companies, should be noted in particular.