Freight transport and logistics

Following the sharp decline in freight volume sold in the previous year, no recovery effects are expected for the overall market in Germany in 2024 due to the continued weak impetus from core industries that are going through a crisis. The available data again shows a decrease for the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. Transport demand should recover somewhat in the second half of 2024. However, the fact that economic development fell short of expectations in the first half of 2024 means that the forecasts for the transport market for 2024 as a whole have been revised downward. The market is characterized by sustained competitive pressure.

• Rail freight transport in 2024 is expected to be slightly below the previous year. Industries that declined in the previous year, such as steel or combined transport, are recovering only slightly or stagnating in 2024. The chemicals sector is experiencing initial recovery effects. This is being opposed by the decline in building material and coal transport and a high infrastructure construction volume in the second half of 2024, and a slight overall decline is therefore expected.
• Road freight transport is also expected to decline slightly in 2024; the decline is likely to be slightly weaker than that in rail transport. Despite higher toll rates, the volume of trucks remains unchanged in 2024, but the slight recovery in the economy as a whole is being offset by a further decline in construction and industrial production, leading to a slight decline in transport volumes overall.
• In spite of massive losses in the previous year, volume sold in inland waterway transport will also record no recovery effects in 2024. A further decline in coal transport and the weak recovery in steel and chemical transports are causing a slight decline in 2024.
• Volume sold in European freight transport is expected to decrease again in 2024. Transport demand is being markedly weakened by industrial sectors that remain in crisis. For container volumes, slight recovery effects are expected in the second half of 2024.
• Revenues in European road freight transport recover more slowly than expected in 2024 due to the still weak economic development. Companies continue to struggle with cost pressures on energy, tolls and wages. The shortage of drivers that has now been continuing for years has, as a result of the weak order situation, a less extreme, but still noticeable, effect.
• The extraordinary development in the ocean freight market is expected to abate at the end of the peak season in the fourth quarter of 2024, when experience indicates that demand will decline. At the same time, many newly built ships will still be delivered in 2024, which should also counteract the pressure on rates on the supply side. The situation in the Red Sea continues to have a significant effect on capacity and rates, and there is as yet no end to this in sight.
• The air freight market is marked in particular by the strong increase in e-commerce business, which is dominating the market from Asia and is expected to continue to grow. Increasing volumes and rates are expected in air freight starting from the beginning of the peak season in the third quarter of 2024.
• The contract logistics market is expected to continue to grow. However, the pace of growth is not expected to exceed 2023 levels, as various risks such as a slowdown in the economy, mounting geopolitical tensions and other factors could affect the market.