Passenger transport
Anticipated market development / % | 2023 | 2024 (Mar forecast) | 2024 (Jul forecast) |
German passenger transport (based on pkm) | +3.0 | +2.5 | +2.0 |
As of July 2024. Forecast for 2024 rounded to nearest half percentage point.
The German passenger transport market was characterized by continued growth in 2023, but remained well below pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. Growth is expected to continue in 2024 but to be weaker. The development of demand for transport strongly depends on regulatory policy measures, economic developments and the mobility behavior of the population. Commuter transport and business travel are undergoing major long-term changes, and are partially being substituted with mobile working and digital communication.
- Although motorized individual transport is likely to continue to record growing volumes in 2024, it is expected to remain below pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels. High fuel prices and changes in mobility behavior after the Covid-19 pandemic have a dampening effect.
- Domestic German air transport has stabilized at a significantly lower level than before the Covid-19 pandemic. A slight increase in volume sold is expected in 2024.
- Public road passenger transport grows markedly, partly as a result of the positive effects of the Germany-Ticket. Long-distance bus transport is also expected to continue to grow in 2024.
- Rail passenger transport is expected to see an increase in volume sold. This will be dampened in part by supply effects because of the extensive construction work and negative effects of the GDL strikes in the first quarter of 2024. Local transport continues to benefit from the Germany-Ticket.
In European passenger transport, too, development is specific to the mode of transport and varies regionally. The climate policy of the EU and its member states remains the long-term driver of development in environmentally friendly public mobility, including rail passenger transport in particular.