Market environment
Passenger and freight transport
Demand for mobility developed unevenly in the first half of 2025. Passenger transport recorded a moderately positive development, although growth in the individual market segments varied. The weak economic trend had a dampening effect in all segments. The Germany-Ticket remains a positive driver of demand for local public transport.
In the first half of 2025, the freight transport market was characterized by downturns in almost all modes of transport due to trade conflicts and cost pressure along the logistics chains. The freight transport market in Germany also continued to decline slightly.
Global economy
In the first half of 2025, the global economy was noticeably affected by the uncertainties surrounding US trade policy. Economic growth in the first few months of 2025 was significantly more subdued in many regions, including the USA. By contrast, economic output in Europe increased slightly in the first quarter of 2025. This was due in part to pull-forward effects in foreign trade in order to forestall the threat of tariff increases. In Germany, the downward trend in industrial production continued, leading to overall stagnation in economic output in the first half of 2025.
Energy markets
The central hedging policy of DB Group aims to reduce energy price fluctuations. Our activities are therefore not exposed to the full impact of changes in market prices, at least not in the short term.
Brent oil
| Brent crude / USD/bbl | H1 2025 | 2024 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| absolute | % | |||
| Average price | 70.8 | 79.9 | –9.1 | –11.4 |
| Highest price | 82.6 | 92.2 | –9.6 | –10.4 |
| Lowest price | 58.4 | 68.7 | –10.3 | –15.0 |
| Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 67.6 | 74.6 | –7.0 | –9.4 |
Source: LSEG
Oil prices fell significantly in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the expansion in production by OPEC+ and reduced demand as a result of muted global economic growth.
Fuel prices in Germany in the first half of 2025 were slightly lower than in the previous year. A decline is expected in the remainder of the year due to falling oil prices and the appreciation of the euro.
Electricity and emissions certificates
| H1 2025 | 2024 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| absolute | % | |||
| Base load power (following year) (€/MWh) | ||||
| Average price | 88.3 | 88.7 | –0.4 | –0.5 |
| Highest price | 103.2 | 103.8 | –0.6 | –0.6 |
| Lowest price | 76.8 | 67.6 | +9.2 | +13.6 |
| Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 84.6 | 88.8 | –4.2 | –4.7 |
| Emissions certificates (€/T CO₂) | ||||
| Average price | 72.6 | 66.5 | +6.1 | +9.2 |
| Highest price | 84.5 | 81.3 | +3.2 | +3.9 |
| Lowest price | 60.1 | 51.1 | +9.0 | +17.6 |
| Final price as of Jun 30/Dec 31 | 69.0 | 73.0 | –4.0 | –5.5 |
Source: LSEG
Following two years of downward movement, prices on the futures market for electricity for delivery in the following year remained essentially unchanged year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, electricity prices have been driven primarily by the reduced supply of natural gas. As gas supplies have eased, wholesale electricity prices have fallen since 2023. Risks from the volatility of renewable energy generation are increasingly reflected in prices. Consumer prices for electricity in Germany remain at a high level in a long-term comparison. Noticeably higher grid charges have been driving up prices since 2024, as the price brakes for electricity and gas expired at the end of 2023. The new renewable energy grid cost allocation has been in place since 2025 with the aim of distributing costs more fairly across regions.
The average price of emissions certificates in the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) increased in the first half of 2025. One reason for this is the increased demand for certificates due to the slight upturn in industrial production in the EU. Price increases continue to be closely linked to stricter emissions targets aimed at achieving climate goals through the gradual reduction in certificates issued.