Developments in the relevant markets

The developments described below are based in part on provisional data and different time horizons, as complete data on market developments in the first half of 2025 was not available at the time this report was prepared.

The German passenger transport market saw a positive trend in the first half of 2025. Growth in the individual market segments was mixed, with rail passenger transport standing out positively.

• Motorized individual transport also saw year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025. Sustained high fuel prices and a change in mobility behavior following the Covid-19 pandemic had a dampening effect on growth.
• As in the previous year, domestic air transport in Germany saw strike-related losses in the first quarter of 2025 and remained well below the pre-Covid-19 level.

Rail passenger transport

Rail passenger transport developed positively and recorded significant growth in volume sold (+8%) in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, which was affected by strikes. DB Group’s volume sold also increased during this period. The second quarter of 2025 is likely to have seen stagnation.

• Regional rail passenger transport grew noticeably in the first quarter of 2025 (+5%) despite the price increase of the Germany-Ticket. DB Regional Rail recorded a disproportionately high increase in volume sold (+8%), in particular due to the omission of strike effects from the first quarter of 2024. Demand stagnated in the second quarter of 2025.
• Long-distance rail passenger transport grew very strongly in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, which was affected by strikes (+12%). In the second quarter of 2025, there was stagnation compared to the same period of the previous year.
• FlixTrain expanded its seating capacity in the first half of 2025 by increasing frequency and adding new connections, among other things.

Public road passenger transport

The overall public road passenger transport market recorded a slight increase in volume sold (+1.0%) in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, despite the price increase of the Germany-Ticket.

• In the first quarter of 2025, the growth rate in regional bus transport was 2.7%.
• Long-distance bus services declined significantly in the first quarter of 2025 (–17.4%), partly due to cannibalization by other transport segments as a result of the ­Germany-Ticket.

The German freight transport market returned to a downward trend following a brief recovery in fall 2024. The continuing lack of an economic upturn and political uncertainty are impacting the trade in goods and demand for transport. After a positive start to 2025 due to pull-forward effects in anticipation of protectionist US foreign policy, a slowdown in demand is expected from the second quarter of 2025 onward. At the same time, providers across all modes of transport continue to struggle with high operating costs, bureaucracy, and a persistent shortage of skilled labor.

Rail freight transport

According to previous publications by the Federal Office of Statistics, the development of rail freight transport volume sold up to March 2025 was lower than in the same period of the previous year, with a decline of 1.3%. This primarily reflects the weakness of the current economic conditions.

The core sectors of coal, iron ore and coke, in particular, saw sharp declines in the first quarter of 2025. Chemical transports also declined and were 2% below the level recorded in the same period of the previous year. Combined transport remained the most important segment for rail freight transport with a share of about 45%. The growth in container throughput at the North Sea ports continued in April 2025.

Road freight transport

The toll statistics of the Federal Office for Goods Transport show positive development in the first months of 2025. However, this increase is primarily due to the inclusion of lighter vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of between 3.5 and 7.5 t in the statistics since July 2024. These vehicles are mainly used in the courier, express and parcel (CEP) segment. Without this expansion of the statistics, the total mileage subject to tolls would have declined. The mileage of heavy goods vehicles fell by 0.8%. Until May 2025, overall mileage on the toll road network increased by 2.3% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Trucks registered in Germany developed better than foreign trucks. Positive drivers of this development include e-commerce and retail.

Inland waterway transport

In the second half of 2024 and until February 2025, the volume sold in inland waterway transport was consistently above the level of the same period of the previous year. Following the significant increase in 2024, driven by non-recurring effects such as increased crude oil imports, inland waterway transport recorded a slight decline of 0.6% as of March 2025.

The main reasons for this are the continued weak transport volumes for coke and iron ore, as well as the lack of recovery in steel transport.

According to the latest available data, the volume sold in European rail freight transport (EU 27, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom) again fell slightly by 1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year. Difficult conditions such as high factor costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to dominate. This situation is exacerbated by the threat of a trade war with the USA, which represents a further negative factor for sectors predisposed to rail transport in particular. The positive development of combined transport was one bright spot in the European rail freight transport market.