Opportunity and risk report

Our business activities are associated with risks as well as opportunities. Our business policy, therefore, aims to take advantage of opportunities through our opportunity management system, while also actively managing risks identified within the framework of our risk management system. There were no material changes in DB Group’s risk management system in the first half of 2025.

There have been changes in the following categories compared to the risks presented in the 2024 Integrated Report:

• In the “Financing from the Federal budget” category, the risks from uncertain eligibility for funding have increased in relevance from low to medium as a result of the Federal Cabinet’s decision on the second budget draft for 2025 and the key parameters to 2029, while the risks from a lack of Federal budget funds for expense grants have fallen in relevance from high to medium. The relevance of the opportunity from the “Creation of contractual foundations for Government funding” has fallen from high to medium. The opportunity from train-path price support no longer applies as the expected Government funding is included in the forecast in full. On the other hand, there is still a risk that the expected Government funding will not be received in full.
• In the “Production and technology” category, the risks from “Delays to ramp-ups of optimization programs” have risen in relevance from low to medium. This is mainly due to the risk of delayed or incomplete implementation of planned transformation measures at DB Cargo. In addition, new expense risks (including higher maintenance costs) with medium relevance have arisen.
• In the “Significant events” category, the “Purchase price risks due to DB Schenker profit development” no longer apply as the sale has now been completed.
• In the “Procurement and energy market” category, risks from energy price effects on the procurement market of low relevance have arisen. In parallel, opportunities from energy price effects on the procurement market of medium relevance have arisen as well as opportunities from other factor cost reliefs (excluding energy) of low relevance have arisen.
• In the “Economic climate, market and competition” category, opportunities from tender effects and renegotiations of low relevance have arisen.
• In the “Capital markets and taxes” category, opportunities from falling interest rates on the capital markets of low relevance have arisen.

Beyond this, the opportunity and risk situation of DB Group as presented in the 2024 Integrated Report did not change significantly in the first half of 2025.

As previously, DB Cargo AG is exposed to the risk that key assumptions underlying its liquidity planning do not materialize within the forecast period (in particular if the transformation of DB Cargo cannot be successfully implemented or risks from economic developments and the market environment materialize), resulting in a liquidity gap. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty at DB Cargo AG, which may cast significant doubt on the ability of DB Cargo AG to continue as a going concern, and which represents a risk to the company’s continued existence. Due to DB Cargo AG’s high credit exposure to DB AG, this also represents a risk for DB AG as a lender. As previously, due to the approval requirements of the European Commission’s state aid investigation into DB Cargo there are significant risks to the continued existence of DB Cargo AG, resulting in financial risks for DB Group.

Based on the Group-wide early warning system and the assessment of the Group Management Board, currently no risks are foreseeable that, either individually or collectively, jeopardize the continued existence of DB Group.