Procurement markets
As a baseline scenario, we do not expect any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side in the second half of 2025. Energy prices (natural gas and electricity) initially saw significant increases at the start of 2025. This was due to persistent periods of low wind and low sunlight in Central Europe, low temperatures, rapidly falling gas storage levels, the end of gas transit through Ukraine, potential attacks on the TurkStream pipeline, and debates about a ban on Russian LNG toward the end of 2024 and in early 2025. The prospect of a relaxation of the EU gas storage rules, the start of negotiations on an end to the war in Ukraine, milder temperatures, and increasing photovoltaic feed-in led to a decline in risk premiums and a strong downward trend from mid-February 2025 onward, albeit still at a high level. In view of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tension and the economic situation in Germany, however, the price development remains uncertain.
For 2025 as a whole, wage and collective bargaining agreements are expected to increase by about 3% on average – compared to a significant increase of 5% in the previous year.
In contrast, producer prices are expected to fall by more than 4% year-on-year.
Current forecasts show different trends in the construction and transport submarkets: while the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development is forecasting a slight increase in prices in the construction sector, prices in the transport sector are expected to remain stable at the previous year’s level. However, the situation is more acute in the special segments relevant to DB Group, with prices continuing to rise contrary to the general trend.
The prices for emissions allowances (carbon allowances) offer little scope for a sustained fall in prices. They were traded on the futures market at about € 75 – a level that corresponds to that of the previous year.
Overall, macroeconomic price trends are also expected to be reflected in DB Group’s purchasing prices. The central procurement department is seeking to counteract this development through active supplier management.