Freight transport
| Anticipated market development / % | 2024 | 2025 (Mar forecast) | 2025 (Jul forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| German freight transport (based on tkm) | +0.0 | +1.0 | –1.0 |
| European rail freight transport (based on tkm) | –0.7 | +1.5 | –1.0 |
After a sideways movement in the previous year, no recovery is forecast for German freight transport in 2025. The continuing weak impetus from the crisis-ridden core industries is preventing a noticeable market recovery. The first quarter of 2025 already saw another year-on-year decline, and there are no signs of growth impetus in the second half of 2025. As a result, the transport market forecasts for 2025 as a whole have been revised downwards. In light of the ongoing global challenges, a recovery in freight transport is now only expected from 2027 onward.
- German rail freight transport is expected to see a year-on-year decline in 2025. Some sectors that were still benefiting from catch-up effects in 2024, such as petroleum products, ores, crude oil and natural gas, are seeing a decreasing demand in 2025. Losses in individual freight categories are being partially cushioned by growth in combined transport. This is set to remain the central growth segment in rail freight transport in 2025.
- In contrast, German road freight transport is expected to see stable development overall in 2025. Despite a dynamic start to the year, dampening factors are having a growing impact. In particular, these include insolvency-related capacity losses, high capital expenditure costs for electric trucks and weak economic performance, especially in the automotive and chemical industries.
- After strong growth in 2024 due to special items, the long-term downward trend in inland waterway transport is expected to continue. Low water levels, especially in April 2025, had a noticeable impact on traffic. Demand for the transport of goods categories that are predisposed to inland waterways, such as coke and ores, is down on the previous year level. A moderate decline is expected for 2025 as a whole.
- It looks like the expected slight recovery in European rail freight transport in 2025 will fail to materialize. The difficult general conditions, such as high factor costs and geopolitical uncertainties, continue to dominate and are exacerbated by the threat of trade conflicts. These are proving to be negative factors for sectors predisposed to rail transport in particular. At a European level, combined transport is also partially compensating for volume losses in some goods categories.