Anticipated development (%)
World trade 1)
1) Trade in goods only.
Expectations for 2020 are subject to a higher degree of forecast volatility.
above previous year’s figure;
at previous yearʼs level;
below previous yearʼs figure
Source: Oxford Economics
With a reduction in the number of Covid-19 infections being observed, at least in large parts of Europe and East Asia, national governments have begun to gradually lift Covid-19 restrictions. At the same time, distancing and hygiene requirements continue to shape everyday life. The possibility of new waves of infection also means that there continues to be a high level of uncertainty. The environment for mobility and transport providers remains challenging.
- In 2020 the global value added is expected to decline significantly. This affects all major economic regions. The Eurozone is heavily dependent on global demand for capital goods, which has plummeted as a result of limited economic activity. The decline in world trade will also be disproportionately high, as capital goods are very trade-intensive. Moreover, the various, staggered Covid-19 measures are causing disruption to value and supply chains.
- As well as weak foreign demand, domestic demand will be noticeably weaker in the Eurozone, as is the case in Germany. Consumers are being affected by rising unemployment levels and lower wage and salary trends. Companies are also putting off investments. The continued low interest rates of the central banks, as well as the credit and spending programs at national and European level, are providing support.
- Compared to its European neighbors, Germany is benefiting from less severe Covid-19 restrictions. In addition, after years of small budget surpluses, the Federal Government can draw on relatively substantial financial resources to support the economy. However, as the German industry is highly export-oriented, economic recovery is hugely dependent on the development of demand in Europe and around the world, and is therefore subject to risk. As a result, the economy will shrink sharply in 2020, but the decline is below the average for the Eurozone.