Market environment
Demand in passenger and freight transport
Demand for mobility developed unevenly in the first half of 2023. Passenger transport recorded positive development. Although the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic had a small positive effect compared to the previous year; the weak economic development dampened demand. Rising prices in all sectors are weighing on private households in the form of lower real wages and are weakening consumer and travel behavior.
By contrast, the weaker economic trend had a more pronounced impact on freight transport. Industrial production and foreign trade in Germany developed weakly in the first half of 2023 and had a dampening effect on demand for transport. Consequently, the freight transport market in Germany declined slightly.
Global economy
The development of the global economy in the first half of 2023 was robust. Growth in the first months of 2023 was stable in many regions, including the USA and Asia. In Europe, on the other hand, high inflation and interest rates still had a strong impact and weakened the trend noticeably. In Germany in particular, this led to stagnation in economic output in the first half of 2023.
Energy marktes
The central hedging policy of DB Group aims to reduce energy price fluctuations. Our activities are therefore not exposed to the full impact of changes in market prices, at least not in the short term.
Brent oil
Brent crude / USD/bbl | H 1 2023 | 2022 | Change | |
absolute | % | |||
Average price | 79.9 | 99.0 | –19.1 | –19.3 |
Highest price | 89.1 | 139.1 | –50.0 | –35.9 |
Lowest price | 70.1 | 75.1 | –5.0 | –6.7 |
Final price as of Jun 30 | 74.9 | 85.9 | –11.0 | –12.8 |
Source: Thomson Reuters
Oil prices fell by 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2023. This is due on the one hand to weakening oil demand from Asia. On the other hand, the Western price cap on Russian oil introduced in December 2022 is having an effect, while at the same time Russia’s oil exports are rising sharply. In addition, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar has risen by 10% since the beginning of the year, causing the price of imported crude oil in euros to fall even more sharply.
Fuel prices in Germany in the first half of 2023 were about 7% lower than in the previous year. This relatively high level is expected to be maintained over the remainder of 2023 despite favorable exchange rate effects and a constant CO₂ tax.
Electricity and emissions certificates
H 1 2023 | 2022 | Change | ||
absolute | % | |||
Base load power (following year) (€/MWh) | ||||
Average price | 151.0 | 298.3 | –147.3 | –49.4 |
Highest price | 219.3 | 1,050 | –830.7 | –79.1 |
Lowest price | 115.5 | 108.8 | +6.7 | +6.2 |
Final price as of Jun 30 | 143.7 | 215.0 | –71.3 | –33.2 |
Emissions certificates (€/t CO₂) | ||||
Average price | 89.3 | 81.2 | +8.1 | +10.0 |
Highest price | 101.3 | 99.2 | +2.1 | +2.1 |
Lowest price | 77.0 | 55.0 | +22.0 | +40.0 |
Final price as of Jun 30 | 89.1 | 84.0 | +5.1 | +6.1 |
Source: Thomson Reuters
Energy markets have calmed down noticeably since the beginning of 2023. Despite temporary short-term price rises, prices for all energy sources – with the exception of the CO₂ market, which is heavily driven by political decisions – have been declining since the beginning of 2023. In a long-term comparison, however, prices are high.
Prices on the futures market for electricity also fell enormously at the turn of the year 2022/2023, and have remained at a low level since then. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, electricity prices have been driven primarily by the shortage of natural gas. As gas supplies have eased, wholesale electricity prices have also fallen recently.