Freight transport and logistics
| Anticipated market development (%) | 2019 | 2020 | 2020 |
German freight transport (based on tkm) | +0.4 | –10 | |
European rail freight transport (based on tkm) | –3.2 | –10 | |
European land transport (based on revenues) | +2.2 | –10 | |
Global air freight (based on t) | –4.4 | –5 | |
Global ocean freight (based on TEU) | +1.1 | –5 | |
Global contract logistics (based on revenues) | +4.5 | –5 |
Expectations for 2020 are subject to a higher degree of forecast volatility.
above previous year’s figure;
at previous yearʼs level;
below previous yearʼs figure
- Although a slow recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2020, the German freight transport market is expected to experience a considerable drop in performance in 2020:
- In rail freight transport, we are seeing a double-digit percentage decline in performance, mainly due to production losses in capital goods and intermediate goods, driven in particular by weak development in the combined transport, steel, chemical/mineral oil and automotive industries.
- For truck transport, the declines in the automotive, mechanical engineering and chemical industries in particular will continue. The impetus from the construction industry is likely to subside, while the impetus from the consumer goods industry and e-commerce will continue to have a stabilizing effect. A significant but, in relative terms, less severe decline is therefore expected in 2020.
- In the case of inland waterway transport, even assuming a stable situation on the main waterways, the negative economic stimulus will lead to a double-digit percentage drop.
- Even with transport demand stabilizing in the second half of the year, the European rail freight transport market is expected to experience the strongest decline in volume sold in 2020 since the 2009 financial crisis.
- A slight recovery in European land transport is anticipated in the second half of 2020 driven by the economic recovery and increasing trade dynamics. However, the decline will still be considerable.
- A slow recovery is expected in air and ocean freight and global contract logistics in the second half of 2020. Overall, there will be a less significant decline in volumes in 2020 compared to other modes of transport.