Passenger transport

Anticipated market development (%)


(Mar forecast)

(Jul forecast)

German passenger transport (based on pkm)




Expectations for 2020 are subject to a higher degree of forecast volatility.

  above previous year’s figure;
  at previous yearʼs level;
  below previous yearʼs figure

The further development of German passenger transport depends heavily on the Covid-19 situation and the associated regulatory measures and changes in mobility behavior. Despite a marked recovery in the second half of 2020, a sharp drop in volume sold is expected in 2020. Commuting and business travel are expected to be partially replaced by working from home and digital communication in the second half of 2020. In the short term, there is also a Covid-19-­­related preference for private transport. Under these circumstances, rail passenger transport has a longer recovery path over the next few years, and could benefit from gains from air transport and long-­­distance bus transport.

The trend toward strengthening public passenger transport continues; in the short term, the contracting organizations’ strained financial situation could have a dampening effect.

In European passenger transport, too, development will be specific to the mode of transport and will vary from region to region. With their planned return to normal schedule during the summer months 2020, the railways are laying the foundations for the recovery of rail passenger transport.

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