Outlook
Despite the current upward trend, there is still great uncertainty about the further development of the Covid-19 pandemic and thus about economic development. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on economic life will continue to decrease and that there will be no significant changes in the geopolitical situation. It also cannot be estimated whether, to what extent and with what impact the GDL could organize industrial action in the second half of 2021.
Development of DB Group
- Development of DB Group in 2021 will continue to be strongly influenced by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Despite restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic, we are still implementing the Strong Rail strategy.
- Capital expenditure activity remains at a high level.
- Profit development probably significantly above the previous year’s level.
Our forecasts for the development of DB Group in the 2021 financial year are based on our expectations of developments in the market, competition and environment, and the success in implementing the planned measures. Another very important basic assumption is that we expect the recovery trend that has been visible since spring 2021 to continue, and that there will be no further noticeable setbacks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Opportunities and risks in relation to our forecast for the 2021 financial year are presented in the opportunity and risk report.
Overall, the situation continues to be characterized by great uncertainty in terms of the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and the speed of recovery. Furthermore, it cannot be estimated whether, to what extent and with what impact, industrial action by the GDL could take place. The consequences of the floods in Germany are currently not yet assessable as well.
| Anticipated development | 2020 | 2021 (Mar forecast) | 2021 (Jul forecast) | |
| Passengers (rail) long-distance transport (million) | 81.3 | >100 | >90 | |
| Passengers (rail) local transport (million) | 1,215 | >1,250 | >1,200 | |
| Volume sold – rail freight transport (Germany) (billion tkm) | 56.2 | >59 | >59 | |
| Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany) (million train-path km) | 1,066 | ~ 1,100 | ~ 1,100 | |
| Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (SI) | 80.2 | 80 | 80 | |
| Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) (SI) | 69.0 | 70 | 70 | |
| Customer satisfaction DB Cargo (SI) | 68 | 65 | 65 | |
| Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 81.8 | 79 | 79 | |
| Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 95.6 | 95 | 95 | |
| Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 77.6 | 75 | 72 | |
| Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix (%) | 61.4 | 62 | 62 | |
| Employee satisfaction (SI) | 3.9 | – | – | |
ROCE (%) | – 7.0 | |||
Debt coverage (%) | 0.8 | |||
above previous year’s figure;
at previous yearʼs level;
below previous yearʼs figure
1) DB Netze Track plus Usedomer Bäderbahn (UBB).
Additional key figures for income, financial and asset situation
| Anticipated development (€ billion) | 2020 | 2021 (Mar | 2021 (Jul forecast) | |
| Revenues | 39.9 | >41 | >42 | |
EBIT adjusted | – 2.9 | ~ –2 | ~ –2 | |
| Gross capital expenditures | 14.4 | >15 | >15 | |
| Net capital expenditures | 5.9 | >6 | >6 | |
| Maturities | 2.3 | 2,2 | 2.2 | |
Bond issues (senior) | 5.4 | >5 | >5 | |
Net financial debt as of Dec 31 | 29.3 | <30 | ~31 | |
Additional environmental key figures
| Anticipated development | 2020 | 2021 (Mar forecast) | 2021 forecast) | |
| Specific greenhouse gas emissions in comparison to 2006 (%) | – 34.4 | – 33.6 | – 37.1 | |
| Track kilometers noise remediated in total as of Dec 31 (km) | 2,039 | 2,100 | 2,100 | |
| Recycling rate (%) | 95.6 | >95 | >95 | |