Anticipated development (%)
Expectations for 2021 are rounded to the nearest half percentage point.
Source: Oxford Economics
As the vaccination rate is increasing and the number of infections is declining, European governments have already noticeably reduced the restrictions on economic and public life in early summer. The environment for mobility and transport providers is thus expected to gradually recover. There has already been a significant recovery in freight transport.
The risks associated with the Covid-19 pandemic nevertheless remain high. For example, it cannot be ruled out that new variants of the virus or the colder weather in autumn will cause infection numbers to increase significantly again and that new measures to combat the Covid-19 pandemic will be necessary.
- For the rest of the year, strong growth in global economic output is expected, meaning that the level of 2019 will be exceeded this year. In addition to the USA and China, Europe in particular will contribute to this growth in the second half of 2021. In many emerging markets, further development depends strongly on the current spread of the Covid-19 virus, as, given the low vaccination rates, comprehensive containment measures may have to be taken again in the event of high infection rates. The major beneficiary of the high momentum is the sharply growing trade in goods. As the consumption of goods has recovered much more quickly than services, demand for transport is high. The current high freight rates for air and ocean transport also reflect this development.
- Domestic demand in the Eurozone will also increase over the course of the year. In view of the high level of activity in trade and industrial production, the willingness of many companies to invest is increasing again. Supply chain bottlenecks should also decrease over the course of the year, enabling the large numbers of orders to be processed. At the same time, private consumption is on the upswing and is supported, among other things, by the above-average savings made during the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Due to the late end of many measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic – by global comparison – the German economy is not expected to grow strongly enough in 2021 to reach its 2019 level again. Nevertheless, the onset of comprehensive recovery in all economic sectors had led to a significant rise in inflation by the summer of 2021. However, this increase is mainly due to one-off effects such as the significant increase in the oil price and the end of the value added tax (VAT) reduction and is expected to flatten out again in subsequent years.