As a baseline scenario, we do not expect any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side for the second half of 2021. Exceptions may arise in the case of materials that are strongly dependent on raw materials (in particular steel and wood) and if capacities above the quantities already contracted need to be procured. The huge monetary policy and fiscal aid programs, together with the vaccination progress in the Western world, are showing the desired stimulus effect for the global economy. This gives rise to a difficult situation in some markets, resulting from an extremely strong increase in demand and an additional shortage of supply due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to the highly volatile raw materials markets, we are also witnessing an unprecedented price momentum in the logistics sector.
The high momentum in the recovery of oil demand coincides with the good production discipline of OPEC+, the delay in the return of Iranian oil exports, and the pressure on oil companies to play a role in protecting the climate. Oil prices are therefore likely to be well supported.
Efforts to protect the climate are speeding up structural change in the energy sector. The expansion of renewable energies is expected to further strengthen price fluctuations on the electricity spot market due to their limited predictability. While the withdrawal from nuclear energy and coal-fired energy generation has the potential to generate higher prices on the production side, developments in the mobility sector will have a significant impact on the momentum of demand.