Freight transport and logistics

Expectations for 2021 are rounded to the nearest half percentage point.

In the second half of 2021, the strong growth that was shown in the second quarter of 2021, especially in the German freight transport market, will not continue. This is due to weakening baseline effects after the recovery that had already started in the second half of 2020. However, growth for the year as a whole should remain strong and will only just fall short of the 2019 level.

• Rail freight transport was hit hard in 2020, primarily by the declines in the iron, coal and steel and bulk goods sectors, as well as in the automotive sector. The recovery in these areas is affecting an above-average increase in performance overall. However, the pre-crisis level will not yet be reached overall. After the decline in 2020, combined transport is also expected to contribute to growth again. The damage caused by the floods µ57 will have a negative impact. Furthermore, the ongoing supply chain problems due to restrictions in Asian ports as a result of Covid-19 outbreaks are expected to have a negative impact on hinterland traffic. The effects of possible industrial action by the GDL are not yet foreseeable.
• Truck transport continues to benefit from positive stimuli from the consumer goods industry, the continuing growth of e-commerce and the construction industry. After the lowest decline in 2020 compared to other modes of transport, however, the positive baseline effects will not be as strong. Overall, growth is expected to be strong, but slightly below average. The pre-crisis level is likely to be reached again.
• Inland waterway transport will also recover after the drop in performance in 2020. However, it will still be below the increase in rail performance, as the freight groups that are developing weakly for the year as a whole, such as mineral oil transport, have a stronger impact on inland waterway transport and the share of the combined transport growth segment is lower. Additional negative im­­-pacts could occur depending on the duration of the flood-related restrictions. It will not yet be possible to return to the pre-crisis level.
• Assuming a further stabilization of transport demand in the second half of 2021, significant growth in volume sold is expected for the European rail freight transport market in 2021. However, the overall market will not yet return to the level of 2019.
• A slight recovery in European land transport is anticipated in the second half of 2021 driven by the economic recovery and increasing trade dynamics. However, the level of 2019 will probably not yet be reached.
• For the global air and ocean freight markets as well as global contract logistics, further recovery and growth is expected in the second half of 2021, significantly above pre-crisis levels. However, risks include prolonged dis­ruptions to international supply chains and the possible resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic in the second half of 2021.