Anticipated market development (%)
German passenger transport (based on pkm)
Expectations for 2021 are rounded to the nearest half percentage point.
The further development of the German passenger transport depends strongly on the extent and speed of the recovery in the second half of 2021. Furthermore, the possible impact of industrial action of the GDL cannot be estimated.
Despite a noticeable recovery in the second half of the year, the expected growth for 2021 as a whole is not sufficient to compensate for the slump in the previous year.
Commuting and business travel will only gradually increase. It can be assumed that working from home and digital communication will have a prolonged effect.
The fact that commuter transport is only recovering gradually has a dampening effect on public transport demand in particular. Given these conditions, regional rail passenger transport has a longer path to recovery ahead of it in the coming years overall. Long-distance rail passenger transport should benefit from gains from long-distance air and bus services.
Overall, the general trend towards strengthening and expanding public passenger transport is intact; there is a steadily increasing social consensus around strengthening rail transport.
Also in European passenger transport, the development will be specific to the mode of transport and will vary from region to region. With their planned return to normal timetables during the summer months, the railways are laying the foundations for the recovery of rail passenger transport.