Opportunity and risk report
Our business activities are associated with risks as well as opportunities. Our business policy therefore aims to take advantage of opportunities through our opportunity management system, while also actively managing those risks identified within the framework of our risk management system. There were no significant changes to DB Group’s risk management system (2021 Integrated Report) in the first half of 2022.
In the 2022 financial year, the opportunity/risk profile continues to be heavily influenced by the possible further effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The opportunity and risk assessment is carried out in relation to the updated anticipated development of DB Group in 2022, with reference to the adjusted operating profit (EBIT adjusted). Compared with the assessment as of December 31, 2021 (2021 Integrated Report) the overall risk assessment has decreased significantly in relation to the EBIT forecast for the 2022 financial year:
- For the forecast of EBIT development in the 2022 financial year, there are further risks in the amount of € 0.7 billion, taking countermeasures into consideration (of which very likely [> 70% probability]: € 0.0 billion). These risks arise primarily in the areas of the Covid-19 pandemic, production and technology, as well as procurement and the energy market.
- There are opportunities for EBIT development in the amount of € 0.1 billion (of which very likely: € 0.0 billion), which arise in the areas of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as production and technology.
Energy and procurement price risks are not yet significant in the 2022 financial year. This is due in part to extensive hedging activities. However, from today’s perspective, the impact on profits is expected to be greater in subsequent years. This also applies to the significant increase in the general inflation rate. Opportunities may arise from countermeasures to be developed by DB Group on the revenue and expense side.
According to our analyses of risks, countermeasures (including financial support from the Federal Government), hedging and provisions, as well as in line with the opinion of the Group Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our mid-term planning, there are no risks that, individually or jointly, would pose a threat to the assets, financial situation or results of operations of DB Group.