Freight transport and logistics
ANTICIPATED MARKET DEVELOPMENT / %
German freight transport (based on tkm)
European rail freight transport (based on tkm)
European land transport (based on revenues)
Global air freight (based on t)
Global ocean freight (based on TEU)
Global contract logistics (based on revenues)
As of July 2022.
Forecasts for 2022 rounded to half percentage points.
There is a high level of uncertainty surrounding any forecast for the second half of 2022. In addition to the war in Ukraine and the effects of high inflation, supply chain problems have been exacerbated by the shutdown in China. These effects are having a massive impact on the transport sector. According to market participants, these effects are only expected to really make themselves felt at the beginning of the second half of 2022, and will significantly exceed the impact of the blockage of the Suez Canal in the previous year. Against this backdrop, only a moderate increase in performance is currently expected for the German freight transport market across all modes of transport.
- Following the strong growth in the previous year, rail freight transport is showing modest development in 2022. This is due, among other factors, to the lack of growth momentum from the vital steel sector, the development in the automotive sector, which is increasing again but is still lagging behind expectations from the beginning of the year 2022, and the deteriorated expectations in combined transport. Coal transport will develop more positively than was assumed at the beginning of 2022. The infrastructure problems resulting from intensive construction activities remain a challenge. Overall, rail freight transport and also DB Cargo will be unable to grow as much as the demand would allow due to the capacity limitations of the infrastructure.
- There are currently some slightly above-average increases in truck traffic, but only a moderate increase in performance. The noticeably slowed development in sectors dominated by trucks, such as the mechanical engineering and consumer goods industries, along with the slowdown in the e-commerce sector, will be reflected accordingly in demand. Stimuli from the construction industry, an important sector, are also likely to fade.
- The performance development of inland waterway transport, as with other modes of transport, will initially weaken in subsequent months. Noticeably diminishing stimuli from another important industry – iron, coal and steel – for example, are likely to counteract further increases in coal transport, catch-up effects in mineral oil transport and a positive baseline effect due to the low water levels in fall 2021. A moderate increase in performance is expected for the year as a whole. However, it will still not be possible to return to pre-Covid-19 levels.
- The global crises and their consequences, such as high energy prices and ongoing supply chain problems, will have a particularly strong impact on energy-intensive industries such as the steel, chemical, construction and automotive sectors, thus limiting the growth prospects for European rail freight transport. Under these conditions, only moderate growth in volume sold is expected.
- In 2021, the European land transport market was dominated by the catch-up effects from 2020. In 2022, the market situation was extremely unstable, driven by external influences such as the war in Ukraine and extreme price increases. Forecasts must therefore be seen as highly volatile and interpreted with caution.
- For the global air and ocean freight markets, major uncertainties are still expected in the second half of 2022 as a result of capacity bottlenecks and traffic jams in the ports.
- The contract logistics market will be able to continue its growth after a full recovery from the declines caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.