Outlook
At present, further consequences of the war in Ukraine, such as in the form of a complete interruption of energy supplies from Russia, are not included in our forecasts, as the potential impact cannot be estimated at present.
Development of DB Group
Despite the current upward trend, there are uncertainties regarding the further development of the Covid-19 pandemic and the possible impact on mobility behavior. Our forecasts are based on the assumption that the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will not increase noticeably again. It is also impossible to estimate whether, to what extent and with what impact there could be possible bottlenecks in energy supplies in Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine, which would lead to further massive burdens on energy prices.
Top targets strong rail
ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT | 2021 | 2022 (Mar | 2022 (Jul | |
Passengers (rail) long-distance transport (million) | 81.9 | ~ 130 | >138 | |
Passengers (rail) local transport (million) | 1,121 | ~ 1,400 | >1,600 | |
Volume sold rail freight transport | 60.3 | >62 | ~ 60 | |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany) | 1,109 | >1,130 | ~ 1,130 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (SI) | 77.8 | 80 | 74 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) | 71.6 | 72 | 70 | |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo 1) (SI) | 70 | 67 | 67 | |
Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 75.2 | ~ 80 | ~ 70 | |
Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 94.3 | ~ 95 | ~ 93 | |
Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 69.8 | ~ 72 | ~ 67 | |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction | 62.4 | 64 | 64 | |
Employee satisfaction (SI) | – | 3.8 | 3.8 | |
ROCE (%) | –3.6 | >0 | ~ 2 | |
Debt coverage (%) | 4.3 |
| ~ 10 | |
above previous year’s figure
at previous year’s level
below previous year’s figure
1) The survey is conducted annually in the spring.
Based on the development to date and updated estimates, we have adjusted some of our expectations for the development in the 2022 financial year:
- Performance development in local and long-distance transport in Germany is recovering more quickly than previously expected. We assume that DB Long-Distance will also benefit from operational capacity-related restrictions in air traffic. The 9-Euro-Ticket is having a positive effect on local transport.
- We have somewhat decreased our expectations for performance development in rail freight transport due to operating restrictions.
- As a result of the unsatisfactory operating situation, we expect weaker development in customer satisfaction and punctuality:
- At DB Long-Distance, we expect lower customer satisfaction due to the low punctuality and the tense operating situation.
- At DB Regional (rail), we expect lower customer satisfaction, in particular as a result of infrastructure-related restrictions on operating quality, more heavily utilized vehicles and space restrictions during the summer months in connection with the 9-Euro-Ticket.
- We have adjusted the forecast for punctuality values downward, at DB Long-Distance significantly, at DB Regional and DB Cargo less clearly. This was mainly due to heavier capacity bottlenecks in infrastructure, primarily as a result of construction work, and greater expected demand for rail passenger transport.
- An improved forecast of adjusted EBIT is expected to result in ROCE recovering somewhat more strongly.