Profitable quality leader
Anticipated development of DB Group | 2017 | 2018 (Mar | 2018 (Jul | |
Volume sold in rail passenger transport (Germany) (billion pkm) | 82.3 | ~84.5 | ~84.5 | |
Volume sold in rail freight transport (billion tkom) | 92.7 | ~98 | ~93 | |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure ( billion train-path km) | 1.07 | ~1.1 | ~1.09 | |
Land transport shipments (million) | 100.5 | ~103 | ~105 | |
Aiore freight volume (export) (million TEU) | 1.30 | ~1.3 | ~1.35 | |
Ocean freight volume (export) (million TEU) | 2.17 | ~2.3 | ~2.23 | |
Customer satisfaction - passengers (SI) | 75.8 | ~78 | ~78 | |
Puntuality DB Group (rail) in germany (%) | 93.9 | ~95 | <94 | |
Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 78.5 | 82 | <80 | |
Revenues (€ billion) | 42.7 | ~44 | ~43.7 | |
Revenues comparable (€ billion) | 43.0 | − | ~44.2 | |
EBIT adjusted (€ billion) | 2.15 | ≥2.2 | ~2.1 | |
ROCE (%) | 6.1 | ~6.0 | ~5.6 | |
Redemption coverage (%) | 18.7 | ≥18.5 | ~18.0 | |
On the basis of the developments to date and the current estimates for the second half of 2018, we have made adjustments to our expectations:
- Following the decline in the first half of 2018, we expect volume sold in rail freight transport to be weaker.
- The increase in shipment volumes in land transport will likely be more positive in light of the upward trend in parcel and direct transport business (not least due to inclusion of non-European transport business).
- In air freight, we now expect the development to be somewhat stronger in 2018 as a whole as well.
- As the year continues, punctuality will probably not be able to make up for the weak development in the first half of the year.
- Following the declining development in the first half of 2018, operating profit will probably be more or less on a par with the level of the previous year.
- The likely weaker development of operating profit will also impact ROCE and redemption coverage.
Business units
Anticipated development | Revenues adjusted | EBIT adjusted | |||||
2017 | 2018 (Mar | 2018 (Jul | 2017 | 2018 (Mar | 2018 (Jul | ||
DB Long-Distance | 4,347 | 381 | |||||
DB Regional | 8,734 | 508 | |||||
DB Arriva | 5,345 | 301 | |||||
DB Cargo | 4,528 | −90 | |||||
DB Schenker | 16,430 | 477 | |||||
DB Netze Track | 5,364 | 687 | |||||
DB Netze Stations | 1,265 | 233 | |||||
DB Netze Energy | 2,794 | 72 | |||||
above previous year's figure
at previous year's level
below previous year's figure
At the business unit level, our expectations are virtually unchanged. Based on development in the first half of 2018, we have made the following adjustments:
- Revenue development at DB Netze Energy will probably be weaker.
- EBIT development at DB Regional and DB Cargo now expected to be at the same level as the previous year.
Anticipated capital expenditures
Anticipated development | 2017 | 2018 (Mar | 2018 (Jul | |
Gross capital exoenditures | 10.5 | >12 | ~12 | |
Net capital expenditures | 3.7 | >4.5 | ~4.5 | |
We have defined our expectations with regard to capital expenditures in 2018 in more detail.
Anticipated financial position
Anticipated devleopment | 2017 | 2018 Mar | 2018 (Jul | |
Maturities | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
Bond issues | 2.0 | ≤3 | 3 | |
Cash and cash equivalents as of Dec 31 | 3.4 | ~3 | ~3 | |
Net financial debt as of Dec 31 | 18.6 | ≤20 | ≤20 | |
Our expectations regarding the financial position for 2018 are roughly unchanged from the forecast in the 2017 Integrated Report. We now expect our bond issues to be at the upper end of our forecast.