2018 Integrated Interim Report – Departure into a new era!

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Anticipated development of DB Group

2017

2018 (Mar
forecast)

2018 (Jul
forecast)

Volume sold in rail passenger transport (Germany) (billion pkm)

82.3

~84.5

~84.5

Volume sold in rail freight transport (billion tkom)

92.7

~98

~93

Train kilometers on track infrastructure ( billion train-path km)

1.07

~1.1

~1.09

Land transport shipments (million)

100.5

~103

~105

Aiore freight volume (export) (million TEU)

1.30

~1.3

~1.35

Ocean freight volume (export) (million TEU) 

2.17

~2.3

~2.23

Customer satisfaction - passengers (SI) 

75.8

~78

~78

Puntuality DB Group (rail) in germany (%)

93.9

~95

<94

     Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%)

78.5

82

<80

Revenues (€ billion)

42.7

~44

~43.7

Revenues comparable (€ billion) 

43.0

~44.2

EBIT adjusted (€ billion)

2.15

2.2

~2.1

ROCE (%)

6.1

~6.0

~5.6

Redemption coverage (%)

18.7

18.5

~18.0

On the basis of the developments to date and the current estimates for the second half of 2018, we have made adjustments to our expectations:

  • Following the decline in the first half of 2018, we expect volume sold in rail freight transport to be weaker.
  • The increase in shipment volumes in land transport will likely be more positive in light of the upward trend in parcel and direct transport business (not least due to inclusion of non-European transport business).
  • In air freight, we now expect the development to be somewhat stronger in 2018 as a whole as well.
  • As the year continues, punctuality will probably not be able to make up for the weak development in the first half of the year.
  • Following the declining development in the first half of 2018, operating profit will probably be more or less on a par with the level of the previous year.
  • The likely weaker development of operating profit will also impact ROCE and redemption coverage. 

Business units

Anticipated development
(€ million)

Revenues adjusted 

EBIT adjusted 

2017

2018 (Mar
forecast)

2018 (Jul
forecast)

2017

2018 (Mar
forecast)

2018 (Jul
forecast)

DB Long-Distance

4,347

381

DB Regional

8,734

508

DB Arriva

5,345301

DB Cargo

4,528

90

DB Schenker

16,430

477

DB Netze Track

5,364

687

DB Netze Stations

1,265

233

DB Netze Energy

2,794

72

 above previous year's figure
 at previous year's level
 below previous year's figure 

At the business unit level, our expectations are virtually un­­­changed. Based on development in the first half of 2018, we have made the following adjustments:

  • Revenue development at DB Netze Energy will probably be weaker.
  • EBIT development at DB Regional and DB Cargo now ex­­­­pected to be at the same level as the previous year.

Anticipated capital expenditures

Anticipated development 
(€ billion)

2017

2018 (Mar
forecat)

2018 (Jul
forecast)

Gross capital exoenditures

10.5

>12

~12

Net capital expenditures

3.7

>4.5

~4.5

We have defined our expectations with regard to capital expenditures in 2018 in more detail.

Anticipated financial position

Anticipated devleopment
(€ billion)

2017

2018 Mar
forecast)

2018 (Jul
forecast)

Maturities

2.1

2.2

2.2

Bond issues

2.0

3

3

Cash and cash equivalents as of Dec 31

3.4

~3

~3

Net financial debt as of Dec 31

18.6

20

20

Our expectations regarding the financial position for 2018 are roughly unchanged from the forecast in the 2017 Integrated Report. We now expect our bond issues to be at the upper end of our forecast.