Positive development in the economic outlook
Anticipated development (%)
World trade 1)
Trade in goods only.
The data for 2017, adjusted for price and calender effects, is based on the information and estimates available as of July 2018. Expectations for 2018 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.
Source: Oxford Economics
Assuming a stable geopolitical situation and no further escalation in the protectionist trade conflicts, we expect the global economy and world trade to undergo stable growth in 2018. The minor downward correction of our current guidance for world trade compared to March is, however, indicative that global economic growth is already losing pace. Growing uncertainty is fueling the modest expectations.
The mentioned development applies particularly to the Eurozone as well, whose prospects are more subdued compared to the previous year. Although the currently favorable price of the euro is helping exports, demand from abroad has weakened. On balance, we nevertheless expect solid economic development in Europe.
By the same token, economic growth in Germany will probably also be well below the level of the previous year. This is mainly due to declining industrial production, while domestic demand remains strong.