Freight transport and logistics
Anticipated market development (%) | 2017 | 2018 (Mar | 2018 (Jul |
German freight transport (based on tkm) | ~+1.9 | ~+2.0 | +2.0 |
European rail freight transport (based on tkm) | ~+ 2.7 | ~+1.5 | ~+1.5 |
European land transport (based on revenues) | +4.8 | +3.5 | +4.0 |
Global air freight (based on t) | +10.0 | +2.0 | +4.0 |
Global ocean freight (based on TEU) | +4.8 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
Global contract logistics (based on revenues) | +3.0 | +3.0 | +4.0 |
The data fpr 2017 and 2018 is based on infrmation and estimated available as of July 2018.
Expectations for 2018 the entire German freight transport market has not changed much since the previous forecasts were published.
The outlook for the entire German freight transport market has not changed much since the previous forecasts were published:
- The absence of final statistics for 2017 makes it difficult to predict the development of rail freight transport in 2018. Bearing in mind the economic outlook, special issues such as the closure of/shift away from coal-fired power stations, and a positive baseline effect following the closure of the Rhine Valley line in late summer 2017, growth in 2018 is expected to be slightly below the average.
- Development of road freight transport in Germany will continue to be above the average. In 2018, growth should be more or less on a par with the previous year, and market position should be further expanded. The expansion of truck tolls to include all federal roads from July 1, 2018 onwards is not expected to have a dampening effect.
- Following a dynamic start to the year, the development of inland waterway transport should lose pace considerably, but will nevertheless remain positive. In addition to subdued stimulus from the iron, coal and steel industry, this trend will probably be fueled by the low water levels that are already occurring and by a negative baseline effect in the second half of 2018. Growth in the second half of 2017 was unusually strong at more than 9% due partly to temporary shifts to other means of transport during the weeks in which the Rhine Valley line was closed.
In the European rail freight transport market, volume sold in 2018 is expected to increase at a lesser pace. Although economic stimulus will remain positive overall, the weak development of coal will continue. The strikes in France are also having an adverse effect that extends beyond the borders.
Based on the development to date in 2018, we have raised our expectations for global air freight and contract logistics significantly, and for European land transport slightly.