Integrated Interim Report 2019 – Germany needs a strong rail system


Economic outlook has worsened

  • The forecasts for development in 2019 are based on the assumption that there will be no material change in the geopolitical situation.

 Anticipated development



(Mar forecast)

(Jun forecast)

World trade 1)




GDP world




GDP Eurozone




GDP Germany




1) Trade in goods only.
The data for 2018, adjusted for price and calendar effects, is based on the information and estimates available as of July 2019. Expectations for 2019 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.
Source: Oxford Economics

For 2019, we generally expect weaker but still robust global economic growth. The development in world trade, however, will likely be considerably weaker than in the previous year; the expectations here have once more deteriorated. There is particularly the result of increased uncertainty in the corporate sector due to the risk of an escalation of ex­­isting trade conflicts.

The Eurozone in particular has been affected by the im­­pact of this uncertainty as the low demand for durable capital goods leads to stagnating industrial production. In light of the robust domestic economy, however, economic growth has remained at an acceptable level overall.

In Germany, the future economic growth expectations have also deteriorated. While private consumption has a supporting effect, the declining production in the manufactur­­ing sector has a slowing effect on growth. The high do­mes­­tic demand in perspective also leads to a smaller German trade surplus as imports increase more than exports.