Economic outlook has worsened
The forecasts for development in 2019 are based on the assumption that there will be no material change in the geopolitical situation.
World trade 1)
1) Trade in goods only.
The data for 2018, adjusted for price and calendar effects, is based on the information and estimates available as of July 2019. Expectations for 2019 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.
Source: Oxford Economics
For 2019, we generally expect weaker but still robust global economic growth. The development in world trade, however, will likely be considerably weaker than in the previous year; the expectations here have once more deteriorated. There is particularly the result of increased uncertainty in the corporate sector due to the risk of an escalation of existing trade conflicts.
The Eurozone in particular has been affected by the impact of this uncertainty as the low demand for durable capital goods leads to stagnating industrial production. In light of the robust domestic economy, however, economic growth has remained at an acceptable level overall.
In Germany, the future economic growth expectations have also deteriorated. While private consumption has a supporting effect, the declining production in the manufacturing sector has a slowing effect on growth. The high domestic demand in perspective also leads to a smaller German trade surplus as imports increase more than exports.