Procurement markets

As a baseline scenario, we continue to expect hardly any physical bottlenecks on the procurement side for DB Group in 2023. Energy prices (natural gas and electricity) have fallen but are at a higher level than before the war in Ukraine. It remains to be seen what effects these will have on production, especially in the second half of 2023. Producer prices are currently at a significantly higher level due to inflation remaining high and generally high collective bargaining agreements. Market stabilization forecasts for 2023 assume a significantly higher price level than before the substantial increase in 2021.

For the rest of 2023, it remains to be seen whether the fall in demand from producers due to high inflation since 2022 will continue and what positive effects this will have on prices.

There is likely to be little wiggle room for the price of CO₂ certificates to fall in the long term. The political will of the Federal Government and the European Commission to achieve a rapid climate-neutral transformation of the energy supply will make itself felt here.

Overall, the situation on the energy markets is currently more relaxed than at the end of 2022, though it is volatile. Spot prices on the electricity market will be significantly influenced by temperature changes, solar irradiance, water levels and wind volume.

The futures prices for gas and electricity, which are roughly twice as high as the previous normal levels, include a significant risk premium due to changed fundamentals in the last two years. In particular, the lack of Russian pipeline gas and the phase-out of coal and nuclear power has reduced reserves/buffers in the energy system with a lasting effect. Accordingly, new shocks pose a high risk of sharply rising prices.