Passenger transport
Anticipated market development / % | 2022 | 2023 (Mar forecast) | 2023 (Jul forecast) |
German passenger transport (based on pkm) | +13.5 | +4.5 | +2.5 |
As of July 2023 – with updated baseline data for 2022.
Forecast for 2023 rounded to nearest half percentage point.
In 2022, the German passenger transport market recovered noticeably, with growth reaching 13.5%, however it remained well below the pre-Covid-19 level. Recovery effects are expected to continue in 2023, but to a lesser extent. The development of transport demand also depends on factors such as transport policy measures and economic development. The significant declines in commuter traffic and business travel seen during the Covid-19 pandemic have, contrary to previous assumptions, been rather slow to recover.
- Although motorized individual transport is expected to continue to grow in 2023, it is only now approaching the pre-Covid-19 level. Persistently high fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine are having a dampening effect.
- Domestic German air transport is expected to claw back further Covid-19-related losses in 2023. However, the market share is likely to remain at a low level.
- Public road passenger transport is expected to increase noticeably once again. The introduction of the Germany-Ticket should have a positive effect on local transport. Long-distance bus transport is expected to perform more poorly by comparison.
- Continued growth in regional and long distance rail passenger transport is expected. Regional transport will benefit greatly from the Germany-Ticket.
In European passenger transport, too, development will be specific to the mode of transport and will vary from region to region. However, the progressive climate policy of the EU and its member states remains the long-term driver of development in environmentally friendly public mobility, including rail passenger transport in particular.