Developments in the relevant markets

The developments described below are based in part on provisional data and different time horizons, as complete data on market developments in the first half of 2026 was not available at the time this report was prepared.

German passenger transport market

The German passenger transport market saw a downward trend in the first half of 2026. Regional rail passenger transport bucked the trend. The price increase for the Germany-Ticket to € 63 effective January 1, 2026, as well as seasonal factors, led to a slight decline in subscription sales at the start of 2026 as is typical.

• The mileage of motorized individual transport in the first quarter of 2026 was below the previous year’s level. Extreme winter weather in January and February 2026, as well as a sharp rise in fuel prices in March 2026, have impacted the segment. In the second quarter of 2026, the temporary fuel discount helped to cushion the impact of rising fuel prices.
• Domestic air transport in Germany got off to a significantly stronger start in the first quarter of 2026 (+4 %) compared with the same period of the previous year, which was impacted by strikes. In response to a sharp rise in jet fuel prices, the European aviation industry reacted with a growing number of flight cancellations in the second quarter of 2026. Strikes in the spring and the suspension of Lufthansa Cityline operations further reduced the number of available flights.

Rail passenger transport

In the first quarter of 2026, rail passenger transport saw a significant decline in the volume sold (–2.6 %) compared with the same period of the previous year. DB Group’s volume sold also declined during this period. Heavy snowfall in January and February 2026 led to cancellations in rail passenger transport throughout Germany. Significant catch-up effects are expected in the second quarter of 2026. However, the ongoing construction work associated with the corridor modernizations is having a dampening effect.

• Regional rail passenger transport declined slightly in the first quarter of 2026 (–0.2 %). Bucking the market trend, DB Regional Rail reported a comparatively solid increase in performance (+1.2 %). Demand is likely to have risen in the second quarter of 2026. This would mean the first half of 2026 saw growth compared with the same period of the previous year.
• Long-distance rail passenger transport saw a very sharp decline in the first quarter of 2026 (–6 %). Supply-side catch-up effects are expected to have occurred in the second quarter of 2026, particularly as a result of pricing measures and increased service frequencies.

Public road passenger transport

The overall public road passenger transport market recorded a slight increase in volume sold in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year (+1.4 %). This is primarily attributable to positive baseline effects due to the omission of strikes from the first half of 2025 and the sharp rise in fuel prices in March 2026 of the current year.

• In the first quarter of 2026, the growth rate in regional bus transport was 1.3 %. DB Regional Road reported an increase in volume sold of 0.4 % during the same period. In the first half of 2026, volume sold increased by 5.8 % compared with the same period of the previous year.
• Long-distance bus transport saw a significant increase in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the extremely weak prior-year period (+5.7 %) but remains at a low level, due in part to cannibalization by other transport segments as a result of the Germany-Ticket.

German freight transport market

The first half of 2026 was characterized by a high degree of uncertainty due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Rising energy and transport costs have led to increased tension in the German freight transport market. In addition, higher tariffs – particularly those imposed by the USA – and China’s industrial catch-up trend had a dampening effect on German foreign trade, industrial production and, ultimately, demand for transport. Nearly all modes of transport saw declines, but road freight transport was stable. The burdens resulting from the escalation of the Middle East conflict were compounded by structural challenges such as high operating costs and a persistent shortage of skilled labor.

Rail freight transport

According to data released to date by the Federal Statistical Office, the volume sold in rail freight transport through March 2026 was down 3.6 % on the already low prior-year level. In particular, this reflects the weak macroeconomic conditions as well as capacity constraints of the rail infrastructure.

Bulk goods such as coal, coke and petroleum products saw particularly sharp declines in the first quarter of 2026. The downturn in production in the chemical and automotive industries was also reflected in transport volumes, which were down 4.9 % and 3.0 % year-on-year respectively. Even combined transport, which remains the most important rail freight transport segment with a share of about 45 %, again saw negative performance in the first quarter of 2026 despite the decline in the previous year. Container throughput at the North Sea ports also declined significantly.

Road freight transport

The weak economy, capacity bottlenecks and rising operating costs weighed on the road freight transport market. This weak performance is also reflected in the toll statistics from the Federal Logistics and Mobility Office: in the first few months of the year 2026, the mileage subject to tolls was mostly below the previous year’s level. Overall, mileage on the toll road network remained largely stable through April 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year, with a decrease of 0.6 %. The courier, express and parcel (CEP) segment continued to provide positive momentum thanks to the sustained dynamic performance of e-commerce.

Inland waterway transport

The downward trend in inland waterway transport continued. Since March 2025, the volume sold has remained consistently below the previous year’s level. Through February 2026, inland waterway transport recorded a decline of 8.6 %. There was a particularly sharp downturn in the transport of bulk goods such as construction materials (–31.9 %), petroleum products (–11.2 %) and grain (–6.1 %).

European rail freight transport market

According to the latest figures from Eurostat, the volume sold in European rail freight transport declined by 2.5 % in the first quarter of 2026. The main cause is the continued decline in production in industrial sectors predisposed to rail transport. The impact of international trade restrictions is exacerbating the negative effects on freight transport, with Chinese imports in particular seeking alternative markets and increasing the cost pressure in Europe. Furthermore, the sharp rise in energy prices is having a negative impact on production in certain industries, including chemicals and automotive, and hence on transport volumes.