Economic outlook
| Anticipated development / % | 2025 | 2026 (Mar forecast) | 2026 (Jul forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| World trade | +5.0 | +2.0 | +5.5 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) World | +3.0 | +3.0 | +2.5 |
| GDP Eurozone | +1.5 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| GDP Germany | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
As of July 2026. Forecasts for 2026 rounded to half percentage points.
Source: Oxford Economics
The global economy is again expected to grow moderately in 2026. A stronger than expected start to the year 2026 in the USA and China should bolster world trade. The European economy should also continue on its solid growth path. For Germany, overall growth in 2026 is expected to be on a par with the previous year. The industry production is expected to continue its downward trend in 2026. Higher state expenses should have a supporting effect, but are not expected to be capable of compensating the negative effects of increasing input cost and decreasing global demand.
Among the key risks to future economic development are the duration and intensity of the Middle East conflict, as well as its impact on the international energy markets. Disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on global economic growth.