Freight transport
| Anticipated market development / % | 2025 | 2026 (Mar forecast) | 2026 (Jul forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| German freight transport (based on tkm) | –1.5 | 0.0 | –1.5 |
| European rail freight transport (based on tkm) | –1.6 | +1.0 | –0.5 |
As of July 2026. Forecasts for 2026 rounded to half percentage points.
German freight transport is expected to decline in 2026 for the fifth year in succession. The expected economic recovery in Germany has been delayed further and is also turning out to be weaker than originally forecast. The ongoing economic weakness is likely to have a negative impact. The volume sold in the first quarter of 2026 was already down on the low level recorded in the previous year. Since no significant recovery is expected for the remainder of the year 2026, the forecasts have been revised downward. From today’s perspective, the market is not expected to see sustained stabilization until 2027.
German rail freight transport is also expected to decline further. In key customer sectors such as chemicals and automotive, the declines in demand already observed in 2025 are expected to intensify. At the same time, the losses in product groups predisposed to rail transport, such as coal and coke, are likely to continue. Combined transport can expectedly no longer fulfill its previous stabilizing function and is also suffering from the effects of corridor modernizations in the rail network.
German road freight transport is expected to see sideways development in 2026. The sluggish economy, the limited supply of cargo space and high cost pressures are set to have a negative impact. E-commerce is likely to continue providing positive momentum, particularly where the CEP segment is concerned, and should prevent a more pronounced market downturn.
There are no signs of a turnaround in inland waterway transport. Given the structural decline in demand for bulk goods, there is little sign of growth potential. The weak performance of the past 12 months is set to continue. A moderate decline is expected for full-year 2026, which is likely to prompt a further fall in the modal share.
The economic recovery and its associated effects on freight volumes in European rail freight transport failed to materialize in early 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, there are indications that the economy in Europe is stabilizing, accompanied by signs of easing tension in certain geopolitical situations. Based on this, the expectation is that European rail freight transport will decline slightly in 2026, albeit not to the same extent as in the first quarter of 2026.