Market environment
Passenger and freight transport
Demand for mobility developed negatively in the first half of 2026. Weather-related restrictions in the first quarter of 2026, as well as weak economic conditions, had a dampening effect across all segments. Oil prices, which have been rising sharply since March 2026, had an impact on motorized individual transport, the bus sector and domestic air transport.
German freight transport saw a decline in the first half of 2026. Geopolitical tensions, ongoing disruptions to international supply chains and rising energy costs resulting from the Middle East conflict increased cost pressures and weighed on transport rates. By contrast, public-sector capital expenditures from the special funds for the German Armed Forces and for infrastructure and climate neutrality provided some support.
Global economy
Until the Middle East conflict escalated in mid-February 2026, the global economy was gaining momentum. Although the challenging geopolitical environment and uncertainties regarding US tariff policy continued to weigh on growth, falling inflation and high levels of capital expenditures in artificial intelligence (AI) delivered considerable momentum. However, rising energy prices and additional geopolitical risks came to the forefront once again with the conflict in the Middle East. While the economies in Asia (including Taiwan, South Korea and China) and the US – which are characterized by high demand for AI technologies – proved to be relatively resilient, retail revenues in the Eurozone declined as private consumption continued to see muted development. Government consumer spendings were the main driver of Eurozone growth.
Energy markets
The central hedging policy of DB Group aims to reduce energy price fluctuations. Our activities are therefore not exposed to the full impact of changes in market prices, at least not in the short term.
Brent oil
| Brent crude / USD / bbl | H1 2026 | 2025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| absolute | % | |||
| Average price | 87.6 | 68.2 | +19.4 | +28.4 |
| Highest price | 126.4 | 82.6 | +43.8 | +53.0 |
| Lowest price | 59.8 | 58.4 | +1.4 | +2.4 |
| Final price as of Jun 30 / Dec 31 | 72.9 | 60.9 | +12.0 | +19.7 |
Source: Refinitiv
Oil prices rose significantly in the first half of 2026 compared with the previous year following the escalation of the Middle East conflict. In June 2026, the situation has eased somewhat as a result of the negotiations between the US and Iran.
Fuel prices in Germany in the first half of 2026 were considerably higher than in the previous year. In March and April 2026, the price of diesel was generally higher than that of gasoline. The reduction in the fuel tax in May and June 2026 by about € 0.17 per liter of fuel had a slightly dampening effect. Given the pronounced fluctuations in oil prices, it is not possible to clearly determine the extent to which this discount was passed on.
Electricity and emissions certificates
| H1 2026 | 2025 | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| absolute | % | |||
| Base load power (following year) (€ / MWh) | ||||
| Average price | 89.4 | 87.4 | +2.0 | +2.3 |
| Highest price | 104.0 | 103.2 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Lowest price | 75.9 | 76.8 | –0.9 | –1.2 |
| Final price as of Jun 30 / Dec 31 | 93.0 | 83.1 | +9.9 | +11.9 |
| Emissions certificates (€ / t CO₂) | ||||
| Average price | 77.1 | 74.9 | +2.2 | +2.9 |
| Highest price | 93.8 | 88.9 | +4.9 | +5.5 |
| Lowest price | 63.1 | 60.1 | +3.0 | +5.0 |
| Final price as of Jun 30 / Dec 31 | 80.2 | 87.4 | –7.2 | –8.2 |
Source: Refinitiv
Bucking the trend of previous years, prices on the futures market for electricity for delivery in the following year rose slightly in the first half of 2026. This trend was driven by rising gas prices, among other things. Consumer prices for electricity in Germany remained at a high level in a long-term comparison. A Government grant toward grid fees from the Climate and Transformation Fund helped to offset this by reducing electricity costs for households and companies. In addition, the reduction in the electricity tax for manufacturing companies will take effect in 2026.
The price of emissions certificates in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) rose slightly in the first half of 2026.