Changes by category

There have been changes in the following categories compared to the risks presented in the 2025 Annual Report:

• Production and technology:
  • The probability of occurrence of the “revenue and expense risks relating to punctuality and construction sites” has increased due to the difficult operational situation; however, the overall relevance remains medium, as the impact of the operational situation has already been factored into the forecast.
  • Due to the operational situation, the relevance of the risk associated with “unplanned maintenance measures” has also increased from low to medium, as unplanned additional requirements may arise in connection with the resolution of individual faults or preventive maintenance.
  • A new risk of low relevance has been added for the “operation of information technology/telecommunication” due to additional costs for day-to-day operations and further funding requirements for infrastructure digitalization projects.
  • In addition, Group-wide risks relating to “information security” with a “low” level of overall relevance have been included and are mitigated by countermeasures.
• Economic climate, market and competition:
  • The relevance of the risks relating to “competition in long-distance and freight transport” has decreased from medium to low, as the risks associated with the financing of the Germany-Ticket at DB Regional that were included in the Annual Report have been eliminated due to the financing secured for 2026.
  • Due to high fuel prices, an opportunity of low relevance has arisen thanks to the competitive advantages of rail transport.
  • The freight transport market opportunity has been eliminated due to DB Cargo’s current business development.
  • An opportunity of low relevance is also expected to arise from additional revenues in connection with vehicle sales at DB Long-Distance.
• Financing from the Federal budget:
  • The risk associated with the pending amendment to the train-path price support directive for long-distance transport has already been factored into the forecast and is therefore no longer included in the risk report. Following the ECJ ruling on the price cap for regional rail transport in the train-path pricing system, it is no longer assumed that train-path price support will be provided for long-distance transport.
  • Similarly, no opportunity is expected to arise from additional support for rail freight transport.
  • In contrast, risks of low relevance from claims by the Federal Government for the reimbursement of funding for infrastructure maintenance expenses in previous years have arisen.
• Procurement and energy market:
  • Risks of low relevance associated with rising procurement prices have arisen, particularly for energy- and personnel-intensive products. Procurement prices are no longer expected to present an opportunity in 2026.
• Regulation:
  • A new opportunity of low relevance will arise if the ECJ ruling on the price cap for regional rail transport in the train-path pricing system is applied analogously to the station pricing system for 2026, thereby enabling a higher level of cost coverage.
• Law and contracts:
  • No further compensation payments from third parties for construction delays are expected in 2026.
• Unassessed risks:
  • The unassessed risks outlined in the 2025 Annual Report were either realized or implemented in planning in the first half of 2026. The significant unassessed risks were in connection with the “Agenda for Satisfied Rail Customers,” the postponement of the commissioning date for Stuttgart 21, the corridor modernization Hamburg — Berlin and the implications of the ECJ proceedings regarding the train-path price cap in regional rail passenger transport.
  • As of June 30, 2026, the significant unassessed risks were in connection with the state aid proceedings against DB Cargo and the regulatory offence proceedings following the train accident in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.